Sunday, December 8, 2013

Modi will not be the next Prime Minister of India
The latest assembly elections in five Indian states do not offer good sign for Narendar Modi of the Bhartiya Janata Party, the Prime Ministerial aspirant of India even though his party has been given the mandate to run Delhi, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pardesh and Rajasthan. Prior to the election, Modi was sailing smooth and he appeared a viable and formidable candidate for India's top job. But the election results has changed that all.
The reason: The emergence of AAP (Aam Aadmi Party, Common People Party) as a major player in India's electoral politics. The AAP that was formed on October 2012 contested Delhi's election and won some 28 seats out of 70 upsetting the BJP as well as the Congress Party, the two main political parties in Delhi. AAP is not composed of seasoned politicians. It is a party of common people drawan from all sectors of Indian's society. It does not enjoy the patronage of any religious establishment or big corporations. It is not based on caste, religion or region. Its main goal is to rid Indian politics and bureaucracy of corruption. A corruption that is bigger in size in India's history since the beginning. A corruption that encompasses every aspect of Indian society.
In this corrupt environment, it fielded candidates with no previous political background in general whose strength was their character and social service. Even in a district which is the stronghold of the Hindu fascist BJP, it fielded a Muslim candidate who mustered over 17,000 votes challenging the notion that a Muslim candidate can only contest the election only from a Muslim dominated district. The leader of the Party himself challenged the three term chief minister of Delhi risking his entire nascent political career.
AAP wants transparency in Indian politics. It wants democracy to serve people and not the politician. It wants to eliminate corruption in political circles by making it a crime. It wants to give people the right to recall their elected officials. It wants to create a public evaluation board to keep an eye on the functioning of political leaders and it wants public officials to represent their constituents and not lobbies. Its strength lies in the support of the people, average people who are never remembered by politicians once the ritual of democracy is over.
These are the ideals that more than 70 percent Indian voters under the age of 35 identify with. It is this section of India society that supported the AAP in Delhi. AAP was pitched against the cadre of the world's most disciplined and dangerous secret organization, the Rashstriya Swayam Sangh (RSS) the fascist ideological organization behind the BJP and other similar outfits. It also faced the rank and file of the oldest Indian political party, the Congress. The party did not have an elaborate organization and unlimited secret funds that every political group usually spends in India. It refrained itself from buying votes on the election eve, a common practice in India where millions of dollars are distributed to buy voters. Both the Congress and BJP supporters gave away hefty cash to their potential voters. Liquor was distributed freely on the eve of the night.
AAP contested only from Delhi, Had it fielded candidates in other states, the BJP would not have got the majority anywhere, because a great majority for Indian voters seem to be sick and tired of the politics of Congress as a party that is immersed in corruption and the BJP, a party built on the bones and blood of thousands of Indians killed in communal rights. Since people did not have any alternative they chose the one they found was appealing to their religious emotions.
BJP's politics is the politics of hatred, corruption and revenge, while the Congress politics is the politics of deception and corruption. Both have presided over the destruction of minorities rights systematically.
The decision of AAP to sit as an opposition in Delhi is a good decision as this would give the leadership an opportunity to focus on expanding the organization in different parts of the country. AAP has presented itself as a value driven organization and it has made it clear that it would not share power with those whom it accuses of being corrupt or communal. Rarely, one finds such a stand in politics. AAP knows that an overwhelming majority of Indians does not subscribe to caste and religion politics. It wants clean governance at all levels and it has no sympathy for those who play divisive politics.
AAP has the capacity to channelize these sentiments in the upcoming election of Indian parliament because it is run by people and not by leaders. Thus, the party would pose serious challenges to both the fascist BJP and the corrupt Congress. The fascist party has its own cadre and it probably would get their full backing. But those who want to see a corruption free India that does not favor any caste or religion and that does not promote a particular class would be enthusiastic for AAP as they were in the just concluded elections in states where an alternative was not available.
It is this alternative that offers Muslims and other minorities an opportunity to identify with.  Because India in the political hands of those who believe in a corruption free India offers the best hope for minorities including Muslims. In Delhi, the Muslims voted for AAP but not as enthusiastically as they voted for Congress. The BJP hardly got Muslim votes. But this would change in the upcoming Indian parliament election as Muslims cannot keep them isolated from what is happening in the country. AAP would be seen an alternative to Congress as BJP was never a choice of the overwhelming majority of Muslims. The BJP also does not want loud Muslim support as it would hurt its own upper caste, hate-filled interest groups including many in the US who have sent millions to the murderous Modi.
Naraendar Modi was hoping a smooth sailing in the national election. But things would change now. He would be forced to talk about the corruption in his own state and the violence his state perpetrated against Muslims and other minorities. The blood of the innocents would haunt him and AAP and its supporters would ensure that the communal politics, the hallmark of BJP, is not allowed to dominate the election agenda. On the strength of the masses, the AAP would make the corruption as India's top agenda and through choosing candidates who would ensure clean politics, it would emerge as one of the most effective players in Indian politics. A new India is about to be born, an India where Modis would have no place, an India, where masses would rise above their caste and religions to restore the dignity to common men. Thus, Modi's dream to become Prime Minister of  the country would evade him even though his party seems to be intoxicant with the victory in four states.


  1. Great Analysis of the election results! As a pluralist it gave me a great hope to note your sentence about a Muslim winning in BJPized area. That is a good change and reaffirms my faith in Indian democracy and India people. Get the best and goodbye to communal politics.

    I like the AAP. Do they have the structure to go national? Should you and I go and get the tickets from Hyderabad and Bangalore respectively. I have no problem in getting votes from all segments of the society, what about you? No, I am not going; we can go a coach people to be non-communal and nationalistic in inclusive way.

    Thanks for the analysis… first one to read today and a good one.

  2. Good job Aslam, after reading your article today, its seem there is still hope for every Indian to progress, not just one group.

  3. I have same opinion and fully agree with you.The exemplary performance of Ms.shazia Ilmi,in New Delhi,s R.K.Puram constituency (with not much Muslim vote) proves that Indian people,by and large are NOT communal.Its the leadership(of all parties) which is communal.

  4. Thanks for your comments. The Muslim leadership, unfortunately, failed to read the mind of the people. India is changing and RSS with its strongest cadre would not be able to pursue its politics of hatred any more.